Danny Kruger, who is a leading backbencher and founder of the increasingly influential New Conservatives group, said the Tories risked being ejected from power this year having left the country "sadder, less united and less conservative" than they found it.
The comments, which were made both at an event last year and in response to a Guardian inquiry, come just as the prime minister seeks to rally his troops with a hint of tax cuts to come in this year's preelection budget.
Sunak will host an event in the north-west of England today, where he will urge voters to stick with the Conservatives, saying: "The choice is whether we stick with the plan that is starting to deliver the long-term change our country needs, or go back to square one with the Labour party."
But the prime minister faces a difficult start to election year, with the possibility of a significant rebellion today over his plan to extract more oil and gas from the North Sea, and another within weeks over the Rwanda bill. Sunak is also likely to have to fight three difficult byelections in Kingswood, Blackpool South and Wellingborough - all of which Labour hopes to win.
Speaking to a private event of Conservative party members organised by the thinktank ResPublica last October, Kruger said: "The narrative that the public has now firmly adopted that over 13 years things have got worse - is one we just have to acknowledge and admit."
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