A 'Republican front' could yet deprive Le Pen of power

“We are in uncharted territory”, was the most neutral assessment of the first-round results in France’s legislative elections.

- MARY DEJEVSKY

While it may be uncharted, however, the territory for the next week of campaigning is not quite as hostile as those – in France and around Europe – concerned about a far-right landslide had feared.

Yes, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally – the somewhat sanitised successor to her father’s National Front – came out on top, with around 34 per cent of the overall vote. This is the first time the far-right has led the poll in a post-Second World War election, a departure which sends justifiable shock waves around Europe. But this was not the runaway victory some had forecast, on the basis that National Rally voters might be more inclined than others to disguise their intentions to pollsters.

If there was a surprise, it was the relatively strong performance of the New Popular Front – an alliance of the left, hastily cobbled together to fight this election, which took 28 per cent of the vote. Ensemble (Together), the centrist formation supporting Emmanuel Macron, took 22 per cent, which was 7 per cent more than in the recent EU elections. The political picture of France thus emerges as split three ways – veering to the right, but with determined resistance from the left, and Macron’s centre hanging on.

Judging how well or badly the parties fared depends on two comparisons. Compared with the EU elections last month, Le Pen’s National Rally did just 1.5 per cent better; and Ensemble, for Macron, did 7 per cent better. Compared with the composition of the current French parliament, however, National Rally stands to more than double its seats – from 88 to more than 200, while the group supporting Macron could be reduced from 170 to fewer than half that.