Election night starts the moment voting ends, with the exit poll at 10pm. At the last general election, in December 2019, the exit poll overestimated the Conservatives’ win by three seats. It underestimated them by four seats in 2017, and by 15 seats in 2015. In 2005 and in 2010, the exit poll got the number of the leading party’s seats exactly right, first Labour and then the Conservatives.
The size of Labour’s predicted majority will be compared instantly with the historical benchmarks: Tony Blair, 179 (1997); Stanley Baldwin, 209 (1924); David Lloyd George, 239 (1918); Stanley Baldwin, 243 (1935); Ramsay MacDonald, 493 (1931).
Then, there is a wait of about an hour and a half for the first declaration. At this point, the sensible thing to do would be to take a power nap – but everyone will discuss the exit poll on social media instead.
The first seat to declare will this time be a race between the new Northumberland constituency of Blyth and Ashington, and Houghton and Sunderland South in Tyne and Wear. Blyth is aiming to declare around 11.30pm. It produced a significant early Conservative win in 2019, but the constituency has since been redrawn, and the new seat would have been Labour last time, so it won’t count as a Labour gain if Ian Lavery, previously the MP for Wansbeck, wins it.
Sunderland South had a long run as the first seat to declare, from 1992 to 2015, but was beaten by Newcastle upon Tyne Central in 2017 and 2019. It will hope to have declared within minutes of Blyth; for its part, Newcastle upon Tyne Central now has “and West” added to it, and isn’t expected to declare until 1.15am.
This story is from the {{IssueName}} edition of {{MagazineName}}.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber ? Sign In
This story is from the {{IssueName}} edition of {{MagazineName}}.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber? Sign In
Biden In Post-Debate Health Check To Placate Democrats
Joe Biden was said to have undergone a medical check-up after last week’s debate as he revealed the prognosis to a group of 20 governors, sources Say.
Misfiring Rivals In Search Of The Quality Of Compromise
Didier Deschamps needs a lone trophy to finish a unique grand slam. He has won the World Cup and the European Championships as a player, the World Cup as a manager.
PM Must 'Honour Pledge Of Safe Route For Afghan Allies'
Coalition of lawyers and refugee workers write to new leader
Starmer's Biggest Issues As He Takes The Keys To No 10
The incoming PM’s in-tray will be more daunting than usual due to a rotten economic inheritance, writes Andrew Grice
CIRCUIT TRAINING
A Formula E driver’s fitness regime is not for the unhealthy, faint-hearted or hungover, as Olivia Petter discovered when she spent a day working out with McLaren racer Sam Bird
Anti-tourism protests won't keep me away from Mallorca
Like the holidaymaker laying down his beach towel at the crack of dawn, protests against overtourism in Mallorca have started even before the summer season has got going.
Backrow bravado may help England conquer All Blacks
It is a little over 60 years now since England embarked on their first Antipodean adventure, a squad led by Mike Weston following previous French, Scottish and Irish tours to make a belated arrival in the Southern Hemisphere in 1963.
Germany could regret late goal as they brace for Spain
It is something that Julian Nagelsmann doesn’t even want to be mentioned around the German camp, but it’s now impossible not to consider.
Dart's tie-break tears leave Boulter down and wiped out
It is the deciding tie-break, and Harriet Dart is losing 6-2 and on the edge of defeat when she walks to the back of Wimbledon’s No 1 Court and begins to cry.
Centre Court rises to start of Murray's long goodbye
The result quickly faded from memory, as a standing ovation for the losing team signalled the start of a long farewell.