Irrespective of whether Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick emerges as the victor, they reckon the Conservative Party is set to make a right turn that will do little to rehabilitate it in the eyes of most voters.
The polls certainly suggest that Mr Cleverly was the most popular of the four candidates who addressed the Tory conference – including not least among those who voted Conservative in July.
Yet, in truth, the key message of the polls has been that none of the candidates is widely known. At least two-thirds of the general public, including half of those who voted Conservative in July, have been unable to express a preference for any of them.
Meanwhile, as has proven to be the case among Tory MPs, none of the candidates has emerged as the clear favourite among those Conservative voters who do express a preference. Mr Cleverly has never had much more than a slight edge.
This creates a dilemma for any Tory member who now wishes to vote for the candidate who has the greater personal appeal. Neither Ms Badenoch nor Mr Jenrick have much of a public profile. Our Tory member is going to have to guess – and hope.
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