EXIT POLLS WILL BE IN THE DOG HOUSE FOR SOME TIME TO COME

NEARLY two decades ago, when the Hindustan Times was first launched in Mumbai, one of the cutting edge offerings it gave city readers was opinion polls in quick time ranging from subjects like: 'Is the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) to blame for the water shortage?' to 'Should Bollywood stars enter politics?" The 'vendor' who did the phone interviews and crunched the numbers for HT was 'C-Voter'.

-  GURBIR SINGH

As coordinators for these quick surveys, we were told C-Voter was required to contact at least a 100 respondents keeping income and cultural backgrounds in view. Later, we unofficially learnt the sample base was one-tenth the target, and much of the projections were often 'manufactured'.

Cut to the current exit poll blowout. The sight of 'Axis My India' pollster Pradeep Gupta weeping copiously on camera on the 'India Today' channel after his 361-401 seats prediction for the NDA went awry, will not be easily forgotten.

Shaky history For years it is known most pollsters have been skating on thin ice. This year the issue has taken a more serious turn for two reasons. First, the charge by the Opposition parties that the poll projections were 'scripted' and not based on ground reports. Second, and more serious is many, including Congress' Rahul Gandhi, have alleged pollsters of being in league with stock market punters to talk up the market before counting day, and then triggering a crash that wiped ₹30 lakh crore off the capital markets.

Exit polls have got it wrong in the past, but this time the margin of error is a scandal.