THE PARADOX OF HIGH FOOD PRICES AMID SURPLUSES

Food inflation is refusing to climb down despite the government's efforts. So we must ask whether we really have surplus production of grains, pulses and sugar

- HARVIR SINGH

SHIVRAJ Singh Chouhan has taken charge at New Delhi's Krishi Bhawan as the Union agriculture minister. A political heavyweight in his own right, Chouhan's long tenure in Madhya Pradesh saw the agriculture sector performing well. But now, a wider variety of concerns is on his table. To make headway on them, I would first urge him to make a realistic assessment of crop production issued by his ministry from time to time. We face a peculiar situation where production estimates are reaching record levels, yet food prices are skyrocketing. If the production is indeed touching record figures, prices should logically start retracting. However, reality is going the other way.

The government claimed record wheat production last year, but had to impose stock limits on the grain on June 13, 2023. This year, too, government estimates set another record for wheat production at 112.9 million tonnes, but the same restriction had to be imposed sometime back. Is this a paradox of sorts?

It's not just about wheat the oddness is true for most agricultural products. This explains our desperation for a good monsoon, which has been erratic this year with a lower-than-expected start followed by a deluge in parts. Climate change is exposing our problem and we need to accept that the days of assured surpluses may be over.

Meanwhile, severe heat waves are delaying the sowing of kharif crops. It is also affected by insufficient water levels in reservoirs in the early part of the season.

In the 2023-24 estimates of GDP, growth in gross value added (GVA) of the agriculture sector was 1.4 percent, while the GVA of the entire economy was 7.2 percent. But in the first advance estimates, the GVA of agriculture was 0.7 percent. Some experts consider the latest estimates inflated.