The BSP said scenarios ranging from $80 to $130 per barrel were simulated to determine the impact of potential world oil price outcomes on the inflation forecasts for 2024 to 2026. The scenarios assume oil prices will remain at these levels starting September 2024.
"Keeping all else constant, inflation could breach the two to four percent target range if Dubai crude oil prices average above $90 per barrel in 2025 and above $100 per barrel in 2026," the BSP said in its latest monetary policy report.
Based on the projections, the impact of a $80-per-barrel scenario can add 3.4 percentage points to inflation this year, 3.3 percentage points in 2025 and 3.5 percentage points in 2026.
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