India's changing security threats

There is a belief that a weak Pakistan is not good for India. As Pakistan weakens, its ability to contain growth of terrorist groups would also diminish, converting the region, spreading from the Indian border to Afghanistan, into a hotbed of terrorism.

Pakistan currently faces much more than just an economic collapse. Its security scenario is growing worse by the day, especially along its western periphery, as also is political instability.

As Pakistan weakens, so do its institutions, as also its ability to be a threat to India. Its reserves of war waging material would be insufficient to sustain a conflict. It would always be concerned about Indian retaliation to its misadventures for which it would have limited options. It will continue to support anti-India terrorist groups but would keep them contained to Indian levels of tolerance.

To prevent its financial collapse, Pakistan is forced to accept harsh terms and conditions placed by those who provide it with aid. There are reports that the IMF is insisting Pakistan reduce its defence expenditure as also commensurately downsize its armed forces as these are unsustainable in its present economic predicament. In the current budget the defence component is second to debt servicing and is 17.5 per cent of the total expenditure. This is just the declared portion of the defence budget.

Other nations which are funding Pakistan, including Saudi Arabia and UAE are insisting that Islamabad seek better terms with India and stop playing the Kashmir card. It was on their prodding that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif offered an olive branch to India.

However, domestically no political party in Pakistan can ignore the Kashmir issue nor avoid raising redundant UN resolutions.

Hence, Pakistan continues with its so-called solidarity days, and regular harping in global circles about human rights violations and adherence to UN resolutions. It is aware that Kashmir is a lost cause. Most of its pro-Kashmir howling is more for domestic consumption rather than global audiences.