Israel may launch ground offensive in absence of Hezbollah border pullback

Western governments trying to dissuade Israel, while warning Iran not to enter fray

- Jonathan Eyal

Israeli troops are continuing to mass at the country's borders with Lebanon amid growing fears that the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah will soon be followed by an Israeli ground offensive against the radical militia, which operates from Lebanese soil.

Israel has already called up two brigades of reservists – around 4,000 soldiers – and has ordered their deployment to the country's northern border with Lebanon.

General Herzi Halevi, the overall commander of Israel's armed forces, also recently dropped heavy hints that a ground offensive against Hezbollah is in the offing. “Your military boots, your manoeuvre boots, will enter enemy territory,” he told senior Israeli officers during an inspection of the border on Sept 25.

“Your entry there with force… will show (Hezbollah) what it is like to meet a professional combat military,” Gen Halevi added in comments, which, tellingly, were subsequently released to the Israeli media.

Most of the highways in northern Israel are currently clogged up with heavy articulated lorries and trailers transporting tanks and infantry armoured personnel carriers to the border. Preparations for war are transparent and prominent.

The consensus among Western diplomats is that Israel has not yet made the final decision to launch a ground offensive, but that such a decision could be taken soon.

And while trying to persuade Israel to avoid an escalation, Western governments are also warning Iran not to enter the fray.

It’s a delicate diplomatic game that may well fail.

Some Israeli security analysts argue that their country’s plans for a ground offensive can now be put on hold.

After all, the blows that Israel inflicted on Hezbollah are heavy, and the militia – once the Middle East’s most potent non-state formation – is now a mere shadow of its former self.