FY 2024 GDP GROWTH SEEN UP AT 7.6%

The Indian economy is on a bull run, with its gross domestic product (GDP) roaring ahead in the October-December period or the third quarter of financial year 2023-24 (Q3FY24) to post a real growth of a high 8.4 per cent year-on-year, showing no signs of a slowdown amid geopolitical conflicts, rather exceeding expectations yet again.

- NIVEDITA MUKHERJEE

If the defying 8.4 per cent growth was the first surprise, revised growth of the past two quarters also underlined India’s resilience with India’s Q2 growth demonstrating an uptick of 8.1 per cent from 7.6 per cent and Q1 growth at 8.2 per cent from the earlier projection of 7.8 per cent. With this the fiscal 2024 growth of the country too is projected upwards.

The National Statistical Office (NSO) in its second advance estimates (SAE) pegs FY2023-24 GDP growth at 7.6 per cent compared with 7.3 per cent previous fiscal. However, Nomura Ratings flags headwinds, including the impact of the general election code of conduct on public capex support, patchy recovery in private capex, weak state of consumption, and ebbing terms of trade advantage for corporates as input costs rise.

A more or less wide expectation was emerging through Sunday Guardian’s interaction with economists and industry, of the GDP firing anywhere in the range of 6.3 per cent with a minimum and maximum growth estimate of 6.0 per cent and 6.6 per cent respectively, as per FICCI outlook while “India’s economy has become more robust and resilient and growth is strengthening quarter after quarter; the Q3 growth at 8.4 per cent indicates a strong growth trajectory to continue in the coming quarters too,” says SP Sharma, lead economist PHD Chamber of Commerce & Industry. The unexpectedness was in growth coming amid moderation in supply side measure of GVA (gross value added) output though matching with expectations – at 6.5 per cent, versus the revised 7.7 per cent in the quarter before.