Barring a stunning revival of Congress, the primary political contest for Telangana next year would be between TRS and BJP. If the extraordinary story of BJP's national expansion in the Modi era has any disappointments, they are: one, the inability to dislodge an incumbent regional party outside the Hindi belt; and two, the inability to extend its footprint in the south beyond Karnataka. A win in Telangana would wipe that slate clean, hence PM-led concerted efforts underscored by the high-profile national executive meet in Hyderabad in July, as also the party's high-profile "Liberation Day" celebrations there on Saturday.
Of course, BJP would take confidence from its impressive performance in Hyderabad municipal polls of 2020, where it finished just behind TRS. But its statewide strategy would likely be guided less by its success in Hyderabad and more by its bypoll victory in Huzurabad. In other words, oriented less on polarisation and more on backward caste consolidation.
BJP has been hamstrung in the past from its thin presence in rural Telangana.
Even during its best performance in the state in the 2019 general election, while 33% voters went with the party in urban areas, only 11% did so in rural areas. In rural Telangana, socio-political competition is dictated by caste and not religion the vast majority of the 12% Muslims of the state are urban dwellers, mostly concentrated in Hyderabad. Thus, only an effective backward caste strategy can build a state-wide power base for BJP.
The space for this backward caste approach has been opened up by the changing political economy of the state.
Telangana has long been dominated by landed, farming castes of Reddys (the traditional base of Congress) and Velamas (the caste of CM K Chandrashekar Rao).
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