We are still two months away, and even though we have had the summer tours, it doesn’t seem as if anything much has changed from the 2023 World Cup in terms of pecking order.
The fixture schedule means that England play New Zealand, Australia and South Africa, whereas Ireland play New Zealand, Argentina and Australia, France play New Zealand and Argentina, and Scotland play South Africa, Argentina and Australia.
At the moment I’d give England, Ireland and France parity on their own grounds against South Africa and New Zealand, and I’d expect those three to beat Australia – in England’s case, irrespective of the off-field issues surrounding the ins and outs in Steve Borthwick’s coaching team in the last few weeks, which has seen Joe El-Abd replace Felix Jones as defence coach.
The South African forwards may be formidable, but England and France both pushed them very hard before suffering one-point losses in the knock-out stage of the World Cup, while Ireland not only beat the Springboks in their World Cup pool match, but also secured another win over the world champions to square their summer series.
If South Africa were playing France, Ireland, and England in succession this autumn that would be a pretty tough assignment, but Scotland, England and Wales is not so daunting.
One line that I don’t believe is that the southern hemisphere teams will be tired when they arrive in Europe having already played summer tour and Rugby Championship fixtures. They will have had a month off to have a rest and then get ready for the autumn in the north, and that seems like a good balance.
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