A physicist by training, Rystad is an optimist about the chance of containing climate change through introducing new technologies. He brings numbers to back up his views, based on the company’s extensive databases.
WHEN ARE WE GOING TO SEE PEAK OIL CONSUMPTION, PEAK FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION?
I think peak coal is very soon. It could even be this year or next year. We are close to peak thermal in China, most likely this year or next, meaning coal and gas electricity generation. China is half of the coal market, so it’s very relevant.
In Europe and the U.S. coal has been trending down for many years. The trend down in Europe and America is balancing the trend up in India and Indonesia and a few other countries and Pakistan, and then China’s peaking. So they are very close to peak coal.
Peak oil, we were in a very good place with EV adoption in Europe and America though it has stalled a little bit due to lack of subsidies. And then we have peak gas, which as you know, consumption is going down in Europe much faster than anyone believed. So taking these three fossil fuels - coal, oil and gas - in aggregate, I think we are talking about maybe the end of this decade will be a peak for fossil, maybe even slightly before.
IS THAT GOOD NEWS?
I think it’s good news, of course. The only way to get rid of oil, gas and coal is to compete with the use of oil, gas and coal through introducing new technologies. So what you need to work on is solar, wind, batteries, geothermal, EVs, etc. All these technologies will make the use of fossil fuel no longer competitive.
WHERE ARE OIL PRICES GOING?
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