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Long products’ prices on back-foot
Domestic steel demand is sluggish, encouraging mills to export. Construction
activities in India are mostly stalled at present because of the lock-down across
states. A size able portion of construction labour has also returned home. With the
approaching monsoon, construction work level will remain low. Therefore, demand
for longs will also stay subdued over Jun-Sept’21.
With the government order lifting restrictions on rebar supplies by secondary
mills for government projects, the price dynamics have altered slightly. As per the
notification, the induction mills can supply to projects, provided they conform to
mandatory BIS standards as per successive Steel Quality Control Orders. But, in a
spin-off, larger mills have not been able to increase their prices too much in order
to stay in competition with the IFs.
On the other hand, globally, demand for flats is high with lock-downs having
eased across Europe. The emphasis is on construction to kick-start economies.
Demand in the West for automobiles is high with an accent on personal vehicles in
countries that once encouraged public transport. Both factors are fueling import
demand for HRCs and CRCs.
There is a gap of 15-20% between the domestic and overseas prices despite a
sharp fall in Chinese export offers on the back of volatile futures. To reduce the gap
with export prices, Indian mills are mulling further price hikes in HRCs and CRCs by
around INR 2,000-3,000/tonne ($27-41/t). In May’21 alone, a few major steel mills
lifted prices twice.
With further hikes expected in HRC prices, the spread between rebars may only
widen further. Mills may not have too much of bandwidth to raise domestic longs
prices with the monsoons round the corner even if lock-downs ease across states.

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