2020 Citrus Forecast

IT’S OCTOBER and eyes are looking toward the start of what may be Florida’s true season: citrus and the official citrus forecast published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

- Tim Craig

“We’re glad to see the Citrus Forecast come out because it marks the unofficial start of our season, says Fran Becker at Peace River Citrus Products. “It kind of sets the tone.”

The citrus forecast allows people from all parts of the industry to put what they are seeing locally into a larger context, says Steven Callaham of the Dun-D Citrus Growers Association.

“All of us have an idea about our own areas, but we don’t get to see how others are doing across the state,” he says. “The citrus forecast gives us a better idea of how everyone is doing, it gives a much broader perspective.”

The total Florida orange forecast for the 2019-2020 season will be 74 million boxes — up 3 percent from last season. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 32 million boxes — up 5 percent from last season. The Valencia forecast came in at 42 million boxes — or up just slightly from last season.

As the season kicks off with the forecast announcement, Callaham, Becker and other local growers are optimistic about their crops, as well as an acceptance of what may be a new normal.

The past two years have been anything but a “new normal.” The citrus industry in Florida is still recovering from the Hurricane Irma-wrecked season of 2017-2018.

However, last year’s numbers were near pre-hurricane totals. According to the USDA 2019 Citrus Fruits summary, Florida’s 71.8 million boxes in orange production was up 59 percent over the 2017-2018 season. All told, the Florida citrus industry accounted for $1.116 billion in revenue, which is still slightly down from the 2016-2017, pre-Irma value.