Economist Kulani Siweya says that despite the attraction of the export markets, farmers are likely to continue supplying the local market in full, due to strong demand and generally good returns.
How do you foresee economic conditions playing out in 2021?
PROF JOHANN KIRSTEN (JK) is the director of the Bureau for Economic Research. KULANI SIWEYA (KS) is an agricultural economist at Agri SA.
JK: With higher business confidence and pent-up demand, there’ll certainly be economic recovery, and we could see positive economic growth in 2021. However, it will take the South African economy until 2025 to reach the GDP levels of December 2019. This is not good for employment or inequality, and will increase poverty levels. And if the phasing out of the income support schemes is added, then the true extent of the blow to income from lockdowninduced business closures and the large number of retrenchments will be laid bare.
A second domestic wave of COVID-19 would be another major damper on consumer demand.
FAST FACTS The further downgrading of the Land Bank’s rating puts food security in jeopardy.
Citrus exports should do well with a weaker rand, due to high demand for the fruit as a healthy food source.
Another hard lockdown would leave South Africa’s embattled economy in dire straits.
この記事は Farmer's Weekly の January 1-8, 2021 版に掲載されています。
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この記事は Farmer's Weekly の January 1-8, 2021 版に掲載されています。
7 日間の Magzter GOLD 無料トライアルを開始して、何千もの厳選されたプレミアム ストーリー、9,000 以上の雑誌や新聞にアクセスしてください。
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