Most used car shoppers will find plenty of bargains in 2018. A record number of vehicles are coming off lease, increasing dealer supply and lowering prices—or at least keeping them flat.
Plus, the vehicles finding their way to dealers’ lots better reflect what today’s customers want: crossovers, SUVs and trucks. But if you’re looking for an older used car, you are going to have a harder time finding what you want, and you might have to pay more than you were expecting.
What’s going on here? It boils down to supply and demand. As Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for Cox Automotive (whose properties include KBB .com and Autotrader), points out, “New vehicles are the source of tomorrow’s used vehicles.” And in the early part of this decade, there was less supply.
Missing generation. In 2011, when vehicle sales were just starting to recover after the Great Recession, dealers sold only about 13 million new cars, compared with 17.2 million in 2017. “That hole in the market continues to have an effect,” says Smoke. “Today, we have 20 million fewer vehicles that are five to eight years old.”
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