While a large segment of the Indian population supports the post-Diwali demonetisation drive, that its impact on India's economy will be negative in the short term is a given. The Dollar Business analyses how the move could well prove a headwind for India's manufacturing, foreign trade and economic growth.
The Government of India, in a sudden and shocking move, implemented demonetisation on November 8, 2016. The move rendered Rs.500 and Rs.1,000 bank notes illegal tender. According to the government, it's an attempt to reduce corruption in the country and clamp down down black money, smuggling, drugs, counterfeit money, etc. Banning 86% of the country’s money in circulation by value is surely a bold move, but will it turn out to be a good move as well? Or, is demonetisation a policy that has gone too far? Above all, can the move really benefit India's growing economy?
While the people of India are split on the decision, economists are unanimous that the move will not benefit the economy in the short run. Considering its impact on the Indian economy, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) itself has lowered the GDP growth forecast for FY2017 from 7.6% to 7.1%.
In fact, several market watchers like Mumbai-based Ambit Capital have brutally lowered India’s GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal from 6.8% to 3.5%. "The demonetisation-driven cash crunch that is playing out in India will paralyse economic activity in the short term. We expect a strong formalisation effect' to play out as nearly half of the non-tax paying businesses in the informal sector (40% share in GDP) will become unviable and cede market share to their organised sector counterparts," states a report from Ambit Capital.
While Dr. Narendra Jadhav, a noted economist who formerly donned the RBI’s Chief Economist hat, labels demonetisation as “constructive disruption”, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, a venerated economist himself, terms demonetisation as “organised loot, legalised plunder”. Certainly there are fierce supporters and naysayers on opposite sides of the aisle! Who is right and who isn't, that, only time will tell. But for now, the economy has to live with it.
この記事は The Dollar Business の January 2017 版に掲載されています。
7 日間の Magzter GOLD 無料トライアルを開始して、何千もの厳選されたプレミアム ストーリー、9,000 以上の雑誌や新聞にアクセスしてください。
すでに購読者です ? サインイン
この記事は The Dollar Business の January 2017 版に掲載されています。
7 日間の Magzter GOLD 無料トライアルを開始して、何千もの厳選されたプレミアム ストーリー、9,000 以上の雑誌や新聞にアクセスしてください。
すでに購読者です? サインイン
'We Are One Of India's Biggest Trade Partners'
References of a strong trade alliance between India and Netherlands can be traced back to the 17th century. Even today, the two nations boast of a robust relationship. In an interaction with The Dollar Business, H.E. Alphonsus Stoelinga, Ambassador of Netherlands to India, talks about the ways to further consolidate the strong bilateral relations and maximise opportunities for investors from both countries.
'India Is A Priority Market For Amul'
When one talks about dairy products in India, the first name that perhaps comes to mind is Amul. R. S. Sodhi, Managing Director of Gujarat Co-Operative Milk Marketing Federation (GCMMF which owns the brand) Ltd., spoke with The Dollar Business about the USP of the cooperative, the continued relevance of its business model and Amul’s expansion across overseas markets.
New-gen Newsmakers
The Dollar Business Celebrates the Success of Rising Stars of Indian Foreign Trade for Them the Sky Is No Limit, It’s Just a Direction!
We Will Be Exporting to 30 Markets From India by End of 2016
Daimler AG has been active in the commercial vehicle business in India since the 1950s. However, it only started manufacturing in the country in 2012 through its subsidiary Daimler India Commercial Vehicles (DICV). And since then there has been no looking back. The Dollar Business caught up with Erich Nesselhauf, MD & CEO, DICV, to know the secret to DICV's success.
Rcep Can Boost Business Across a Large Region
New Zealand and India have a lot in common – from their love for cricket to their Commonwealth heritage and much more. Despite this the bilateral trade between the two countries is yet to live up to its potential. In an exclusive interaction with The Dollar Business, Grahame Morton, High Commissioner of New Zealand to India, talks about various ways to improve social, political and trade ties between the two nations.
MEIS: When Change Is the Only Constant
The Merchandise Export from India Scheme (MEIS), which was introduced in FTP 2015-2020, has undergone several changes. Recently again, while 2,901 tarifflines were added to the MEIS schedule, reward rates across 575 tarifflines were altered. While just the word ‘added’ may sound good to some exporters, for the most, frequent changes and ambiguities in notifications are confusing many.
FTP Mid - Term Review : Will Exporters Woes Continue?
India's exporters got little from this year's Union Budget. The recently implemented Goods and Services Tax (GST) further left them confused. They now can't wait to learn what 'happy surprises' the mid-term review of the Foreign Trade Policy has in store for them. And not to say, their expectations from the mid-term review have changed in the past weeks. [It's just getting bigger!] The Dollar Business reaches out to India's EXIM community to learn what it desires from the FTP revision and how GST has impacted its wishlist.
Exporters Find It Tough To Honour High Volume Commitments
Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), established in 1985, has been instrumental in identifying new markets and providing better support systems to exporters of agricultural and processed food products. In a tête-à-tête with The Dollar Business, Devendra Kumar Singh, Chairman of APEDA, throws light on the various initiatives that APEDA is taking up to give exports a boost.
Can India's Outsourcing Industry Survive The Trump Attack?
Uncertainty has descended upon the $150-billion Indian outsourcing industry in anticipation of the protectionist regime under President Trump. Protectionism has been a popular election rhetoric across nations, and more so in recent times. And the voting masses seem to like it. Will Trump’s campaign cry for protectionism cross the boundaries of poetic drama and come alive as laws? There is no doubt that US being the largest consumer nation in the world, governments across the globe will keep a close watch on Trump’s policies. India will be no exception. The hot-button topic for India – ‘outsourcing’, has surfaced again and the impact of Trump’s announcements, be it restrictions on H-1B visas or penal taxes on US companies for outsourcing jobs, is being felt already in India. And this, coming during times when India's outsourcing industry has been experiencing a rough patch isn't an encouraging development. How hard will an avalanche of protectionist measures from the Trump regime hit India's outsourcing industry?
Our Sourcing From India Will Double In The Next Few Years
It's a known fact that the Indian government is working hard to increase defence and aerospace procurement from indigenous sources – from the current 40% to 70%, in the next 10 years. The Dollar Business recently caught up with Pratyush Kumar, President, Boeing India, to understand how manufacturers in India can leverage growth opportunities and what makes India a preferred sourcing destination for the American aircraft-maker.
