The year gone by was eventful, both for the world and India. While the much-awaited Goods and Services Tax (GST) was passed by the Indian Parliament, United Kingdom voted to exit the European Union. While Donald Trump took the world by surprise, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's sudden announcement of demonetisation left the whole country in a financial shock. The global commodity market too woke up from a slumber, though there is more recovery that can be made. While these and many other such events shook the world in 2016, their impact on global trade and policy environments will only likely be seen in 2017. Will 2017 be a year of change for the better? The Dollar Business takes a look at key elements and occurrences that could change world trade in 2017.
Two events that shook the world in 2016 were Britain voting to exit the European Union and Donald Trump’s surprise (shocking?) win in the US presidential elections.
When it comes to India, the two major government decisions that created a stir in 2016 were the passage of the GST Bill and the demonetisation initiative of the government. We did predict, in January 2016 issue of The Dollar Business, that the GST Bill was likely to go through in 2016 and we have been proven right on that. Demonetisation though took us by surprise, just as it did the entire nation. We had also predicted that crude prices will be in the range of $40 to $60 and crude stayed within that range for the most part of 2016.
It was certainly a year of more hits than misses in terms of forecasts for us. And following tradition, this year again, we analyse the events of the past to come up with educated forecasts as to how 2017 will look for India and the world, in terms of trade and economy. Our take in general: 2017 will spring surprises too!
TRUMP IMPACT
Love him or hate him, the world will now have to contend with President Donald Trump. His campaign rhetoric against China was something that many thought was just that, rhetoric. But his recent overtures towards Taiwan and his consistent remarks against China may mean that he will follow through on at the very least some of his campaign promises. He has already announced that US is walking away from Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), expressed a desire to work on a preferential trade agreement with UK, talked about imposing punitive taxes on US companies who outsource jobs abroad and has expressed a desire to revisit NAFTA.
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'We Are One Of India's Biggest Trade Partners'
References of a strong trade alliance between India and Netherlands can be traced back to the 17th century. Even today, the two nations boast of a robust relationship. In an interaction with The Dollar Business, H.E. Alphonsus Stoelinga, Ambassador of Netherlands to India, talks about the ways to further consolidate the strong bilateral relations and maximise opportunities for investors from both countries.
'India Is A Priority Market For Amul'
When one talks about dairy products in India, the first name that perhaps comes to mind is Amul. R. S. Sodhi, Managing Director of Gujarat Co-Operative Milk Marketing Federation (GCMMF which owns the brand) Ltd., spoke with The Dollar Business about the USP of the cooperative, the continued relevance of its business model and Amul’s expansion across overseas markets.
New-gen Newsmakers
The Dollar Business Celebrates the Success of Rising Stars of Indian Foreign Trade for Them the Sky Is No Limit, It’s Just a Direction!
We Will Be Exporting to 30 Markets From India by End of 2016
Daimler AG has been active in the commercial vehicle business in India since the 1950s. However, it only started manufacturing in the country in 2012 through its subsidiary Daimler India Commercial Vehicles (DICV). And since then there has been no looking back. The Dollar Business caught up with Erich Nesselhauf, MD & CEO, DICV, to know the secret to DICV's success.
Rcep Can Boost Business Across a Large Region
New Zealand and India have a lot in common – from their love for cricket to their Commonwealth heritage and much more. Despite this the bilateral trade between the two countries is yet to live up to its potential. In an exclusive interaction with The Dollar Business, Grahame Morton, High Commissioner of New Zealand to India, talks about various ways to improve social, political and trade ties between the two nations.
MEIS: When Change Is the Only Constant
The Merchandise Export from India Scheme (MEIS), which was introduced in FTP 2015-2020, has undergone several changes. Recently again, while 2,901 tarifflines were added to the MEIS schedule, reward rates across 575 tarifflines were altered. While just the word ‘added’ may sound good to some exporters, for the most, frequent changes and ambiguities in notifications are confusing many.
FTP Mid - Term Review : Will Exporters Woes Continue?
India's exporters got little from this year's Union Budget. The recently implemented Goods and Services Tax (GST) further left them confused. They now can't wait to learn what 'happy surprises' the mid-term review of the Foreign Trade Policy has in store for them. And not to say, their expectations from the mid-term review have changed in the past weeks. [It's just getting bigger!] The Dollar Business reaches out to India's EXIM community to learn what it desires from the FTP revision and how GST has impacted its wishlist.
Exporters Find It Tough To Honour High Volume Commitments
Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), established in 1985, has been instrumental in identifying new markets and providing better support systems to exporters of agricultural and processed food products. In a tête-à-tête with The Dollar Business, Devendra Kumar Singh, Chairman of APEDA, throws light on the various initiatives that APEDA is taking up to give exports a boost.
Can India's Outsourcing Industry Survive The Trump Attack?
Uncertainty has descended upon the $150-billion Indian outsourcing industry in anticipation of the protectionist regime under President Trump. Protectionism has been a popular election rhetoric across nations, and more so in recent times. And the voting masses seem to like it. Will Trump’s campaign cry for protectionism cross the boundaries of poetic drama and come alive as laws? There is no doubt that US being the largest consumer nation in the world, governments across the globe will keep a close watch on Trump’s policies. India will be no exception. The hot-button topic for India – ‘outsourcing’, has surfaced again and the impact of Trump’s announcements, be it restrictions on H-1B visas or penal taxes on US companies for outsourcing jobs, is being felt already in India. And this, coming during times when India's outsourcing industry has been experiencing a rough patch isn't an encouraging development. How hard will an avalanche of protectionist measures from the Trump regime hit India's outsourcing industry?
Our Sourcing From India Will Double In The Next Few Years
It's a known fact that the Indian government is working hard to increase defence and aerospace procurement from indigenous sources – from the current 40% to 70%, in the next 10 years. The Dollar Business recently caught up with Pratyush Kumar, President, Boeing India, to understand how manufacturers in India can leverage growth opportunities and what makes India a preferred sourcing destination for the American aircraft-maker.
