Fasten Your Seat Belt

What if We Treated Melting Ice Like Other Possible Catastrophes?

- Kathryn Hulick

You hop in the car to ride to soccer practice. What do you expect to happen on the way? You might have to waste time stuck in traffic or sit through awful music on the radio. But the trip will almost certainly go smoothly, as usual. You might even make great time and get to hear your favorite song. Yet you buckle your seat belt anyway. Why do you do that? Because every time you get in a car, there is a very small chance that you might get in an accident that could hurt or even kill you.

In 2014, about 35,400 people died in accidents involving vehicles. Each year, Americans have about a 1 in 48,000 chance of dying while riding in a car. Of course, that translates to a 99.99 percent chance of not dying that way.

However, we still put a lot of effort into trying to prevent injury or death in a car accident, notes Richard Alley, a climate scientist at Penn State. We put on seat belts. Our cars feature airbags and self-braking systems. Parents buckle babies in car seats. Police monitor driving speeds and arrest drunk drivers. Alley says, “We put a lot [of money and effort] into something we do not expect to happen [to us] because if it were to happen, it would be so bad.”

We all agree that wearing a seat belt in a car is a good idea. We don’t expect a catastrophe, but one is possible. So it makes sense to buckle up to try to avoid the worst possible outcome. Now think about climate change. Does our planet need a seat belt?

For Better or for Worse The future of Earth’s climate is a lot like a trip in the car, except instead of traveling to soccer practice, imagine that you’re on a road trip to a tournament hundreds of miles away. There’s a pretty good chance that you’ll run into obstacles such as traffic, construction, or bad weather, but you expect to get there safely.