Mitigating climate change

Reducing dependence on fossil fuels is the need of the hour but the world seems to be moving in the opposite direction

- ANAND TANDON

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a UN body) released its latest report on mitigating climate change in the first week of April 2022. The output, which is as much political as it is scientific, reiterated yet again that the time window to stabilise climate change is rapidly closing.

The opportunity to limit global warming to less than 1.5°C is already behind us. IPCC’s scenario analysis (see chart) reveals that for temperature increase to be limited to below 1.5°C, net zero emissions have to be reached by 2050. To keep it below 2°C, these targets have to be met by early 2070. The current NDCs (nationally determined contributions – the policy goals that each government declares for itself) do not achieve this by 2050. This, even if one assumes no slippage – a highly unlikely scenario.

No further increase in fossil fuel is desirable

The report’s conclusion on fossil fuel is unequivocal: “Estimates of future CO2 emissions from existing fossil fuel infrastructures already exceed remaining cumulative net CO2 emissions in pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot”. To limit likely temperature increase to less than 2°C, cumulative CO2 emissions till net zero should not exceed 880 Gt. Current estimates of emissions from existing and planned infrastructure lie in the range of 600–1100 Gt. If the climate targets have to be met, no new fossil-fuel infrastructure should be set up.

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