Grey Zone Threats – Implications On Force Structuring

Grey Zone conflict strategy has also gained traction due to the pre-eminence of the virtual world in governance, social media, domestic life, commerce and trade. Countries poorly governed are more susceptible to such threats. CoVID-19 crisis has further complicated the issue.

LT GENERAL DUSHYANT SINGH (RETD)

SPIRALING COST OF CONVENTIONAL war calls for non-traditional strategies which are defined as irregular, hybrid, proxy, non-contact, etc., falling under an umbrella term of Grey Zone warfare. A look at rising US war bills drives home this point compelling other nations to resort to grey zone warfare. For example, as per a US study, it has spent $6.4 trillion since 2001 on all wars fought by it. On the other hand, waging a proxy war with non-state actors in the grey zone can cause unacceptable damage at minimum costs. For example, between 1989 to 2002, the government of Jammu and Kashmir (now a Union Territory) spent `3,630 crores (approximate $500 million) on anti-terror operations of which `2,357 crores was reimbursed by the central government (approximate $330 million). Against this Pakistan has spent minuscule both in terms of military and finances to wage a proxy war against India. Disproportionate outcomes, of below the threshold of warfare have encouraged nations to adopt non-military means to achieve their political goals. This form of warfare has led to the phrase “grey zone conflict” which is an overarching term to include cyber, information, hybrid, proxy and threshold warfare, brinkmanship strategies, acts of sabotage, and disruption of essential services.

This unchartered territory that nations have to wade through will lead to realignments and reorganization of global / institutions such as WHO, WTO, UNICEF, and so on. For example as per Rema Nagarajan, the global participation and contribution to WHO has taken a severe beating with US withdrawal following allegations that the DG tried to shield China for its complicity in mismanaging the spread of the virus. This space is a fertile ground for psychological warfare, cyber warfare, and terror war which are essentials of grey zone warfare.