At the end of the first week into the second phase of the country’s extended lockdown (April 21), the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, the number of those recovered and the number of deaths stood at 18,601 (14,759 active), 3,252 and 590 respectively.
The rates of increase both in the number of confirmed cases and in the number of deaths (in percentage terms) have come down to single digits (Figures 1 and 2). The plots in Figure 2, which is on a logarithmic scale (with each unit on the y-axis increasing by a factor of 10), are linearly increasing, which is what they would look like if the number of cases (and correspondingly the number of deaths) are still on an exponentially increasing curve.
The two phases of lockdown have certainly achieved their objective of slowing down the transmission of the infection in the population. This, as mentioned above, is also evident from the fact that the rate of increase in the number of infections has been coming down since the lockdown began. In the second phase, in fact, it has come down from a 10-15 per cent rate of increase to under 10 per cent, a little flattening of the curve. That this should happen is intuitively obvious when physical distancing between people and person-to-person contacts are minimised; the chance of one individual passing the infection to another has been greatly reduced.
この記事は FRONTLINE の May 08, 2020 版に掲載されています。
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7 日間の Magzter GOLD 無料トライアルを開始して、何千もの厳選されたプレミアム ストーリー、9,000 以上の雑誌や新聞にアクセスしてください。
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How Not To Handle An Epidemic
The lockdowns were meant to buy time to put in place appropriate health measures and contain the coronavirus’ spread, but they have failed to achieve the objective and heaped immense misery on the marginalised sections of society. India is still in the exponential phase of the COVID-19 infection and community transmission is a reality that the government refuses to accept.
Tragedy on foot
As the COVID-19-induced lockdown cuts the ground beneath their feet in Tamil Nadu, thousands of migrant workers are trudging along the highway to the relative safety of their upcountry homes.
Sarpanchs as game changers
Odisha manages to keep COVID-19 well under control because of the strong participation of panchayati raj institutions and the community at the grass-roots level under the leadership of Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik.
Scapegoating China
As the COVID-19 death rate spikes and the economy tanks in the United States, Donald Trump and his advisers target China and the World Health Organisation with an eye to winning the forthcoming presidential election.
New worries
Kerala’s measured approach to the pandemic and lockdown has yielded results. But it still has to grapple with their huge economic impact on its economy, which it feels the Centre’s special financial relief package does little to alleviate.
No love lost for labour
Taking advantage of the lockdown and the inability of workers to organise protests, many State governments introduce sweeping changes to labour laws to the detriment of workers on the pretext of reviving production and boosting the economy.
Capital's Malthusian moment
In a world that needs substantial reorienting of production and distribution, Indian capital is resorting to a militant form of moribund neoliberalism to overcome its current crisis. In this pursuit of profit, it is ready and willing to throw into mortal peril millions whom it adjudicates as not worth their means—an admixture of social Darwinism born of capital’s avarice and brutalism spawned by Hindutva. .
Understanding migration
When governments and their plans are found to be blatantly wanting in addressing reverse migration, exercises such as the Ekta Parishad’s survey of migrant workers throughout India can be useful to work out creative long-lasting solutions.
Waiting for Jabalpur moment
The Supreme Court’s role in ensuring executive accountability during the ongoing lockdown leaves much to be desired. Standing in shining contrast is the record of some High Courts.
An empty package
The Modi regime, which has been unable to control the COVID-19 infection, restore economic activity and provide relief to millions exposed to starvation, trains its sights on Indian democracy, making use of the panic generated by fear and a lockdown that forecloses paths of resistance.
