Will Jogi Queer The Pitch?

The Tactical BSP-JCC alliance could turn the BJP-Congress battle in Chhattisgarh into a three-cornered contest.

- Rahul Noronha

Assembly elections in Chhattisgarh have always been a close fight. In the 2003 elections, the difference in vote share between the BJP and Congress was 2.55 per cent. In 2013, it shrank to 0.75 per cent. This election, the surprise announcement of an alliance between the BSP and former chief minister Ajit Jogi’s Janta Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC) has muddied the waters further. What does the new political alignment mean for the parties in Chhattisgarh, where Raman Singh, the longest-serving BJP chief minister in the country, is trying to secure a fourth successive term?

That the Congress had been negotiating an alliance with the BSP was an open secret. The BJP, too, was following the developments closely as it holds nine of the 10 seats reserved for Scheduled Castes in the 90-member assembly. Giving details of the tie-up in Lucknow—35 seats for the BSP and 55 for the JCC, with Jogi as the chief ministerial face—Mayawati said on September 20 she had “carefully thought it out”. It probably meant she was going by the old rationale that while the BSP’s vote was transferable, the Congress’s wasn’t, which meant the Congress would gain at her party’s expense. Within the BSP-JCC alliance, a transfer of the SC vote is a real possibility as Jogi enjoys the status of a demi-god in the Satnami community—the largest among SCs in the state.

The Satnamis hold sway in 14 assembly seats in central Chhattisgarh, accounting for 20-35 per cent of the votes. They are a crucial segment in another half a dozen seats. En masse support from the community in these seats, along with the votes of smaller communities, such as Kachhi and boatmen, could ensure victory for the BSP-JCC combine.