Remapping the Last Mile of the Urban Supply Chain

A new suite of data technologies offers unprecedented promise to crack the black box of effective deliveries in congested cities.

- Matthias Winkenbach

It is estimated that by 2025, a quarter of the world’s population will reside in its 600 largest cities, and these urban centers will collectively account for about 62 percent of global GDP.

Today, there are already 28 so-called megacities on the planet — defined as cities with more 10 million or more inhabitants — and the United Nations projects that the number will reach 41 by 2030, accounting for a population of some 453 million people.

These urban centers represent a vast market for a wide range of products. But a major hurdle to unlocking the market’s full potential is the last mile — the final segment of supply chains where products are delivered to urban customers.

Limited infrastructure, traffic congestion, and arcane city planning and regulations are some of the problems that disrupt last-mile operations. The fragmentation of demand, spurred by the dramatic growth in e-commerce, adds another layer of complexity.

In addition, most megacities are located in emerging countries where small retail outlets — or “nanostores” — dominate the landscape. A nanostore may be a mom-and-pop grocery, or even a simple kiosk, and, due to their highly limited size, their stocks need to be replenished frequently. In Mexico City, for example, some 60 percent of the city’s nanostores maintain only one to two days of inventory.