Donald Trump Is Back In Reckoning

Trump has a big lead in the Republican race. The fresh indictment, too, is only likely to boost him. Biden's team believes his candidacy is good news, but other Democrats aren't as sure

- Prashant Jha

After the midterms in November 2022, when Americans elected all A members to the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate, the older Republican establishment and Democratic pundits wrote Donald Trump's political obituary.

His favoured candidates had lost. Voters had explicitly rejected those who had supported Trump's claim that the 2020 election was "stolen" and his audacious attempt to stay on in power after losing to Joe Biden. The Supreme Court verdict on abortion, a result of Trump's success in filling the court with nominees during his term, had sparked a backlash among women. His most likely challenger for the Republican nomination for the presidency, Florida's governor Ron DeSantis, had just swept the state, winning a second term in office. And both Republican donors, as well as its influential media champions, moved away from Trump. What a difference a few months can make in politics, for Donald Trump is back.

As Republican candidates head to their first primary debate next week in Iowa, Trump is so comfortably placed in the race that he may not even turn up for the debate. On August 14, Fivethirtyeight.com's average of recent polls of the Republican primary race had 52.7% voters back Trump as opposed to 14% backing DeSantis, a staggering 38 percentage point lead. All the others who will appear in next week's debate most prominently, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Chris Christie and Tim Scottpoll less than 10%, in most cases below five per cent, though Ramaswamy's rise and visibility in recent weeks has been quite remarkable for a first-time candidate with no political background.

What's behind the surge?