Living With The Delta Variant

Elimination of COVID-19 is no longer possible

- Dr. Edsel Maurice T. Salvana

As the COVID-19 pandemic drags on toward the second half of 2021, one thing is becoming clear. There is only one acceptable long-term solution to living with COVID-19. That solution is widespread vaccination.

SARS-CoV-2, through its variants, has proven that it will be around for a very long time. Hopes to eliminate it completely with hard lockdowns and by isolating whole countries from the world have now proven to be unsustainable. This is mainly because of the emergence of the Delta variant. Countries such as China, which successfully used hard lockdowns, are now seeing resurgent spikes with Delta. Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Malaysia that previously crushed their epidemic curves are seeing their worst outbreaks of the pandemic. Australia, which was touted as a model country response earlier in the pandemic, has had to impose crippling lockdowns in its major cities with mixed results. All these experiences are showing that previously best practices against COVID-19 are not as effective against the Delta variant.

Early lockdowns last year in these countries undoubtedly saved millions of lives. In the Philippines, the March 2020 lockdown is estimated to have saved at least 200,000 Filipinos. The original Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 virus had an R0 (R naught) of 2.4 to 2.6, meaning each infected case could infect between two to three people at a time. Only lockdowns were initially effective in stemming exponential spread at the start of the pandemic. This was the only way to protect the healthcare system and prevent excess mortality at that time.