Despite a concerted effort to get the deal done, senior government sources now believe it is unlikely to be struck until next week at the earliest, amid concerns that a loss of momentum could increase the chances of it unravelling altogether.
Some Conservative MPs, including close allies of Sunak, are concerned that he has missed his best opportunity to reach an agreement, as tomorrow has been ruled out because it clashes with the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is expected to dominate the weekend.
The prime minister held overnight talks on Tuesday with the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, fuelling speculation that the UK is nearing agreement with the EU over the protocol.
It was the second time in five days that Sunak and Von der Leyen had spoken. However, there are no ministerial discussions planned for today, and the Brussels chief is supposed to be in Italy, suggesting it is unlikely she will travel to London.
Government sources have said that Sunak is preparing to defy his Tory MP critics in the European Research Group (ERG) and press ahead with the deal if he can secure one within the coming days. He is coming under growing pressure from moderate Conservatives to ignore the hardline Brexit er wing of the party.
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