Reversal Of Fortune Despite Warnings, Ukraine Is Struggling To Repel Attack

Russia's attack across the border north and north-west of Kharkiv Moscow, was telegraphed by predicted by intelligence western and anticipated by Ukraine.

- Dan Sabbagh

The fact that Russian forces have been able to advance about 4 miles at multiple points in five days raises serious questions about Kyiv's ability to defend itself.

An intention to create "a sanitary zone" along the border inside Ukraine was signalled by Vladimir Putin in March. A month later Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister, highlighted that Kharkiv had an "important role" as it was reeling from bombing that knocked out two power stations on 22 March.

At the same time, in Russia's Belgorod region Moscow's military had been building up its new northern group of forces, estimated by the US think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) at 30,000 strong. Last week, two days before the dawn assault, Kharkiv's regional governor said a massing of forces had been spotted.

A warning was also passed, one source added, from UK defence intelligence to Ukraine's leadership. So when on 5am last Friday, between 5,000 and 10,000 Russian soldiers crossed the border at two key points, it might have been expected that the attack would be swiftly repulsed.