Bank Of England Admits Errors In Inflation Forecasts

‘Too low’ predictions led to mistakes in decision-making

- ADAM FORREST ARCHIE MITCHELL

The Bank of England has “very big” lessons to learn, it said after admitting errors in its UK inflation forecasts.

The central bank’s top economist, Huw Pill, acknowledged its forecasts for inflation were “too low”, leading to mistakes in its decision-making. And governor Andrew Bailey said: “I think there are some very big lessons in how we operate monetary policy in the face of very big shocks.”

The admissions came as the Bank faced a grilling from MPs on soaring interest rates, which have spelled misery for borrowers – including millions of mortgage holders. It also came as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Britain is no longer heading for recession this year, upgrading its forecast.

The international body said the UK’s economic outlook remains “subdued” – but is now forecasting growth of 0.4 per cent in 2023, having previous estimated a 0.3 per cent contraction. The IMF said the change reflects “higher-than-expected resilience” in both demand and supply – pointing to improved confidence because of post-Brexit plans and declining energy costs.