Could Sunak's By-Election Crisis Be Worse Than Feared?

Just two weeks are left until polling day in three crucial byelections: Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Selby and Ainsty, and Somerton and Frome.

- SEAN O'GRADY

And there are signs of yet more contests to come in what could be a summer that will keep both politicians and psephologists busy. Based on odds and polling, the results may be even bigger bombshells than previously thought.

What’s happening?

On 20 July, the three by-elections will mark the biggest test of public opinion since the local elections in May. It looks like a hat-trick of Tory losses, which they will want to get out of the way well before the party conference in the first week of October. Inevitably, the losses will be seen as an adverse verdict on the lack of progress on Rishi Sunak’s “five priorities”. One key thing to look for is how far the results confirm trends seen in opinion polls and the council elections. The strength of antiTory tactical voting will also be closely watched by party managers. Sunak will be hoping it finally marks the electoral nadir of his administration.

Who is winning?

Though bookies are hardly infallible, you can’t really argue with odds of 20 to 1 “on” (ie a 95 per cent chance) of the Liberal Democrats’ Sarah Dyke being returned in Somerton on a swing of at least 40 per cent; it would be in the top four of any UK byelection shocks and the most impressive Lib Dem gain from a Tory in history.

In its own way no less impressive would be Labour winning Selby. That requires a substantial swing of about 17 per cent in fairly unpromising territory, but here William Hill have Labour the strong favourites at 2/5, and the Tories drifting out at 15/8.