Vladimir Putin is recruiting convicts from Russian jails to fill gaps in his fighting force in Ukraine left by “incredibly high” fatalities and injuries, Western officials believe. It is thought that the Russian president is turning to prisoners and private military companies because of a fear of political opposition in Russia if he attempts to draw on the wider population with a general mobilisation.
And Western observers believe it is significant that recruitment to the war-battered invasion force is now taking place largely in rural areas, rather than the cities, where dissent and protest is more likely to be fomented. The assembly of what appears to be a third Russian army corps of 10-15,000 personnel has been detected by the West, but there is not yet definitive proof of whether it is destined for Ukraine.
With the Russian offensive in the eastern Donbas region grinding to a near-halt in recent weeks, and Ukraine making counter-attacks around the southern city of Kherson, Putin is in desperate need of more personnel and firepower to maintain any momentum in his invasion. But Western officials do not believe he has yet given up his “maximalist” ambitions for Moscow to establish dominance over Ukraine, and may instead be adjusting the timeframe in which they can be achieved from months to years.
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