Tory Voters Won't Thank Us If We Replace The Prime Minister

The results of the local and police and crime commissioner elections in England were supposed to follow a clear narrative – that Labour was on course for a massive parliamentary majority in a general election, and that Rishi Sunak’s premiership would be on the rocks, with rebel factions waiting to displace him.

- LIAM FOX

The fact that these predictions have not been sustained poses the question “Why not?” One of the major factors is the analysis of the results themselves.

Prof Michael Thrasher’s conclusion – that, based on these results, Labour will be the biggest party in parliament but well short of a parliamentary majority – has created a very different political environment. The idea of taking on a Labour Party that has a nine-point lead and has polled 10 per cent short of its own opinion poll ratings has made many Conservatives believe that the election is still all to play for.

This is reinforced by the fact that those who have been out on the doorsteps know this is not the 1990s. There is no great love for Labour among potential swing voters, and even less enthusiasm for Keir Starmer as prime minister. The low turnout across the whole range of last week’s elections reinforces this view.

What will really spook Labour MPs, however, is the thought that this is not a repeat of the run-up to the 1997 election, but the ghost of the 1992 “Labour victory that never was” coming back to haunt them. The trouble with Muslim voters in their heartlands will also give many Labour MPs the jitters.