Last year saw a particularly hopeless set of forecasts, with the official forecasts of inflation far too optimistic, and hardly anyone predicting the collapse of the prices of US high-tech shares. Even the better forecasts have not been much help to investors. Take the one from Morgan Stanley, which did predict a surge in inflation and interest rates, thought that the benchmark S&P500 index would be rangebound and volatile. Well, it has been volatile, but not rangebound, for it is currently down nearly 20 per cent on the year.
So rather than trying to predict what might happen in the coming year, let's step back and think of the wider features of the world economy right now. Here are five propositions.
First, there is a global economic cycle and this year sees the downswing of that cycle. We all know this, and while there is a debate as to which countries will come through it in better shape than the others, the big picture is one of recession. Current conventional predictions are that the US will pull out all right, the UK will have a long and difficult recession, and that continental Europe will be somewhere in between.
この記事は The Independent の December 28, 2022 版に掲載されています。
7 日間の Magzter GOLD 無料トライアルを開始して、何千もの厳選されたプレミアム ストーリー、9,000 以上の雑誌や新聞にアクセスしてください。
すでに購読者です ? サインイン
この記事は The Independent の December 28, 2022 版に掲載されています。
7 日間の Magzter GOLD 無料トライアルを開始して、何千もの厳選されたプレミアム ストーリー、9,000 以上の雑誌や新聞にアクセスしてください。
すでに購読者です? サインイン
Why Lawson got Red Bull seat over unlucky Tsunoda
Surely Yuki Tsunoda believed this would be his time for the highly coveted promotion.
Sad tale of an entertainer turned middling curiosity
Jack Grealish has sacrificed flair for silverware at City but as he returns home to Villa Park, he'll wonder if it was worth it
Spurs survive 'self-inflicted' collapse to reach cup semis
As Son Heung-min wheeled away and the Tottenham fans in the South Stand bounced their way into the Carabao Cup semifinals, it was fitting in this bonkers, breathless tie that the winning goal against Manchester United would come straight from a corner kick.
A rocky road ahead but we are not quite in stagflation
Should “stagflation” be our word of the day? It’s the term used by the parents of proto-central bankers to scare them into eating their broccoli. It applies when you have slow or no economic growth, high inflation and high interest rates.
Australia's coal expansion a 'death sentence' for islands
Australia’s decision to expand four coal mines has been slammed by island nations as a death sentence” and a betrayal of global climate commitments.
Healthcare killing suspect receives fan mail and cash
Luigi Mangione, the suspect at the centre of the UnitedHealthcare CEO shooting, has received more than 100 pieces of mail just over a week after he was taken into custody, a spokesperson for the Pennsylvania Department of Corrections confirmed to The Independent.
Russia is 'ready to negotiate and compromise', Putin says
A rare 13th-century Bible will return to its ancestral home in Salisbury Cathedral more than 700 years after it was written, thanks to the help of The Independent.
Mum relives horror of her teenage son's fatal stabbing
The grieving mother of a teenage boy has described the harrowing moment her son died in her arms after a brutal knife attack near their home in Bristol.
Independent helps raise £90,000 to return medieval Bible to Salisbury Cathedral
A rare 13th-century Bible will return to its ancestral home in Salisbury Cathedral more than 700 years after it was written, thanks to the help of The Independent.
Avanti managers turn down £250 offer for working day off as new year strike looms
Train managers at Avanti West Coast have turned down an offer worth £250 for working on a day off – or £300 at weekends.
