2021 Isn't Pakistan's 1971

An angry US is far from Islamabad’s only problem as it tries to control faction-ridden Taliban

- Shrey Khanna

US secretary of state Antony Blinken’s statement on Pakistan’s “double-dealing” in Afghanistan and the consequent need to “review” ties is far from the only trouble Islamabad faces. Never mind rhetoric on the Taliban victory being Islamabad’s own “1971 moment”. Or the recent visit of the ISI chief to Kabul. Kabul’s new regime will likely create a set of political, security and diplomatic challenges for Islamabad.

While Pakistan would rely on the Haqqani Network to safeguard its interests in Afghanistan, Sirajuddin Haqqani is just one of the players on the chessboard of Afghan politics. It is likely that a nationalist section led by Mullah Baradar, who was in line to become the head of Taliban after Mullah Omar, would resist ISI domination in the future as it had during the insurgency phase.

Another section of the Taliban led by charismatic Abdul Qayum Zakir, which operates in western Afghanistan, is heavily supported by Iran. Notably, the Kandahari faction led by Mullah Yaqub, the son of Mullah Omar, may emerge as a troublemaker for Pakistan as it was the efforts of ISI that had thwarted Yaqub’s succession as the head of Taliban in 2015.

ISI did succeed in getting an interim government out of factional infighting in Taliban, and also succeeded in securing the interior and intelligence ministries for its allies as well as containing the nationalist faction led by Baradar. Also, senior anti-Pakistan commanders like Mullah Zakir, Mullah Ibrahim Sadar and Qari Baryal have been excluded from the government positions. Nevertheless, as intra-Taliban infighting intensifies in the future, Islamabad would struggle to contain the factions, which are hostile to its interests.