Abe's More Assertive Japan: Will He Defy Expectations Again?

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan has proven, despite the setback of his first, undistinguished stint as premier, to be a remarkably resilient politician. In power since 2012, his economic policies have been only moderately successful and his aggressive security policies have raised the hackles of large segments of the Japanese public.

Nonetheless, he may soon become Japans longest-serving post-war prime minister. The challenges he faces, however, continue to mount, writes Ellis Krauss, among them Donald Trumps erratic administration and Abes desire to amend Japans postwar peace constitution to fit the reality of the countrys more assertive security posture.

- Ellis Krauss

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, in power since 2012, has consistently defied expectations. He first came to the office in 2006, as the protégé and successor to Japan’s most popular and arguably most successful post-war prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi. By skilfully using a major electoral reform in 1994 and an administrative reform in 2001 that enhanced the leadership of the prime minister, Koizumi brought about major changes in Japan’s economic and security policies. abe also was popular at first, despite being known as a nationalist and as the grandson of the disgraced Prime minister Nobusuke Kishi, who resigned after mishandling the 1960 Us-Japan security treaty crisis. there were high expectations for him as Japan’s youngest post-war prime minister, Koizumi’s lieutenant and a well-known fourth-generation politician.

However, the first abe administration failed to meet expectations and was marked by repeated scandals among his cabinet ministers, while he concentrated on foreign affairs and largely ignored domestic policy reforms needed to help Japan emerge from its decade and a half long recession. also unpopular was his desire to advance Japan’s military, the Self-Defense Forces (SDF), which he upgraded to a full-fledged ministry during this term, as he sought to make Japan a more assertive power. He also stumbled in denying Japan’s culpability on historical memory issues and its brutal role in the Pacific War. abe lasted only one year.

After his ruling conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) — the party that had governed Japan for all but a year since its formation in 1955 — lost an Upper House election, he resigned due to ill health amid falling approval ratings. the increased influence of the prime minister proved that it could result in either great success (Koizumi) or speedy failure (abe’s first term).