A New Energy Disorder

At a time when the world is moving towards decarbonisation, the Russia-Ukraine war has brought energy poverty on the doorstep of rich nations. Europe's energy ministers are now touring countries of all hues and persuasions to strike deals for supply of fossil fuels to hedge against inflation and future shortages. The new energy order that emerges post this conflict could well be devoid of climate change as its focal point

- Rohini Krishnamurthy And Avantika Goswami

NO ONE knows how long this horrific and inhuman war waged by Russia against Ukraine will last, and how it will end. But it is already reshaping the global order of energy. And in this age of climate change, it is bound to shape the future as we know it. Energy prices have already surged across the world, and governments that were discussing how to move away from fossil fuels are now urging oil and gas producers to increase supply. Energy poverty, a term well understood in emerging countries, where millions live without access to basic electricity, has now found place in the lexicon of rich nations. What will governments do to “cool” the energy markets, and what will this mean in a world a that has already run out of carbon space and time in terms of climate change?

RUSSIA, A MAJOR OIL AND GAS PRODUCER

Share of top 10 crude oil producers in 2019 (in %)

Share of top 10 natural gas producers in 2019 (in %)

The war has made the energy crisis more acute. Russia is a major producer of oil and gas and the US and its allies have put severe sanctions on the country. “Six of the top 10 shipping companies in the world, controlling over 60 per cent of global capacity, have suspended Russian bookings,” Kaushik Deb, senior research scholar at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, told Down To Earth (DTE) in the second week of March, soon after the US banned import of Russian fuel. This is a disruption of the 5-6 million barrels that Russia exports by the sea every day; about half of this is crude oil, Deb said. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that 3 million barrels of Russian crude oil and oil products may not find their way to markets per day, beginning April.