Serendipity

Embracing the Patagonia Picnic Table Effect

- GARRET SKEAD

I've always been drawn to the concept of the 'Patagonia Picnic Table Effect (PPTE). In fact, you could say I'm an ardent believer. The concept thrills me. It appeals to my sense of wonder in the mystique of the natural world and the unusual events that can lead to the discovery of rare birds.

For those who need a refresher, PPTE is the term given to the phenomenon in which the discovery of a rare bird at a specific location results in the discovery of more rare birds at the same site, with a potential snowballing effect. The concept was named after an Arizona State Route 82 rest area where the phenomenon was first noted (confusingly, nowhere near Patagonia). There are countless examples of this across the world, including in our subregion. It's a concept that frequently comes up in birding circle conversations and it's always at the back of my mind when I head out on a twitch. Because, surely, it just makes sense. It simply must be real anecdotal or not, there are just too many excellent examples.

However, my good friend Matthew Orolowitz (a key protagonist in this tale, who also happens to be a scientist and is brilliant) is far from convinced. Apparently, the 'science' and 'statistics' behind it don't really work. Various studies have been conducted that showed no statistical differences in the likelihood of finding a rare bird (or even additional common species) when compared to baseline birding activities.