The Amazon Election

Presidential campaigns in Brazil normally don't seize the world's attention. But these aren't normal times

- Jessica Brice, Andrew Rosati, and Tatiana Freitas

At the edge of the Amazon rainforest in Brazil's northern states, there's no avoiding the billboards. Most any drive through Pará or Rondônia is going to bring you face-to-much larger-face with President Jair Bolsonaro, who's up for reelection on Oct. 2. Bolsonaro's billboards, which sit in freshly plowed soybean fields and at the edges of sprawling cattle ranches carved from the rainforest, praise him as a patriot and Christian who stands for quem produz, those who produce. They don't bother with subtext when contrasting the incumbent with his opponent, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Lula, the signs declare, wants to take guns away, free criminals, and raise taxes for his leftist agenda.

Brazilian elections rarely draw their fair share of notice abroad. The country of 215 million is the size of a continent, not to mention Latin America's biggest economy, a cultural trendsetter, and the largest exporter of many of the world's most traded commodities, including coffee, orange juice, beef, and soybeans. Yet it's been relatively stable for decades, never playing a major role in clashes between superpowers or even in world politics generally. This year is different. Bolsonaro and Lula are larger-than-life characters with troubled histories and global name recognition nearly comparable to Donald Trump and Hugo Chávez, and their contest comes with high stakes for just about every creature on Earth.

Polls are widely predicting a Lula win, less likely in the first round but almost definitely in a runoff on Oct 30. His victory would strengthen the shift to the left in Latin America (see Peru, Chile, Colombia, Argentina, and Mexico), weakening Washington's efforts to isolate Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua through sanctions while increasing opportunities for Chinese investment and influence. But those billboards at the edge of the Amazon showcase the biggest reason why this election is so important abroad.