Except for pork, meat prices traded lower this past month

While the local livestock industry continues to battle many challenges, an uptick in beef exports as well as the poultry industry's strides to replenish the chicken supply bode well, says Absa AgriBusiness.

This piece considers the dynamics in the livestock industry to T explore what price trends could look like over the coming weeks.

BEEF

Class A carcass beef prices held firm, hovering around the R55/kg mark since the second week of January and continuing post-Easter. This trend exhibited a departure from the historical post-festive season downward trend, which typically reversed due to the Easter holiday-induced demand. We are of the opinion that Class A carcass prices have remained predominantly bullish largely influenced by an uptick in beef exports. However, the beef export data for the first quarter of 2024 is not yet available to confirm this trend.

Class C carcass prices eased monthon-month (m/m) by 5,6% (see Graph 1), reflecting subdued consumer demand attributed to ongoing consumer income pressures. Class A carcass prices also traded sideways year-on-year (y/y), while Class C carcass prices decreased by 10%. Weaner prices decreased by 3,2% m/m and were 11,7% lower y/y, weighed by the increased supply of weaner calves. Profitability, as measured by the beef-to-maize ratio, decreased by 5,6% m/m. This is the result of higher yellow maize prices, increasing by 6,5% y/y as a result of the pessimistic maize production sentiments caused by the dry and hot weather during critical growing stages, which led to maize quality and yield concerns.