Why maize prices soar in Kenya and Malawi but not Tanzania

Namhla Landani, an economist at the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, University of Johannesburg, and Arthur Khomotso Mahuma, economist and researcher at the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, University of Johannesburg, analyse the issue.

For more than a year, maize prices in Kenya and Malawi have been much higher compared with other countries in the East and Southern Africa (ESA) region.

Several factors explain this. In Malawi, high fertiliser prices, which resulted in lower fertiliser usage, affected maize supply. This was compounded by adverse weather and trade bans, leading to lower-than-usual production.

In Kenya, high maize prices have been driven up by excessive margins. Sellers are charging prices that are more than the import parity price - the maize price from surplus-producing countries, plus transport costs for importing into Kenya.

This is particularly concerning for a country with about 1,2 million of the population facing acute food insecurity.

We are economists at the African Market Observatory, which monitors prices of staple foods and conducts research on market dynamics, including market concentration and barriers to entry, within and across countries in ESA. The analysis is complemented through in-depth field work.

Maize is the leading staple food in the region. It is commonly traded across borders to meet overall regional demand. Tanzania is the leading producer of non-genetically modified maize and exports to other countries in the region. Since 2023, Tanzania has become an important source of maize exports to the region, with bumper harvests due to above-average rainfall.

Malawi generally produces enough to meet its requirements while Kenya has consistently been a net importer of maize due to the large population. If maize markets were working well, the prices in both Kenya and Malawi would consistently reflect the prevailing prices in surplus-producing countries in the region, such as Tanzania, in 2023 and 2024.

Competition authorities should take a regional approach to ensure that markets are working well in terms of pricing and trade.