Mark Zandi is chief economist for Moody’s Analytics.
The Fiscal Responsibility Act, which suspends the debt ceiling through January 1, 2025, reduces nondefense discretionary spending through the next fiscal year and limits growth in discretionary spending to 1% in 2025. Will these cuts push the economy into recession?
No, I don’t think so. When you do the arithmetic, the cuts and other provisions will reduce real gross domestic product by about two tenths of one percentage point at the peak of the impact in late 2024. It’s not the greatest thing in the world, given that the economy is struggling, but I don’t think it will push the economy into recession.
Another provision in the debt ceiling agreement will end the moratorium on student loan repayments, which means millions of borrowers will be required to resume payments in September. How will that affect the economy since those borrowers will presumably have less money to spend?
この記事は Kiplinger's Personal Finance の August 2023 版に掲載されています。
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この記事は Kiplinger's Personal Finance の August 2023 版に掲載されています。
7 日間の Magzter GOLD 無料トライアルを開始して、何千もの厳選されたプレミアム ストーリー、9,000 以上の雑誌や新聞にアクセスしてください。
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