Build a recession-proof shield

With the economy expected to drop a notch or two, only the strong will survive

- Anthony O’Brien

First, let’s be clear that most economists are not expecting a full-blown recession in Australia. NAB’s latest forecast is for the economy to grow by 0.7% in 2023 and 0.9% in 2024. The Reserve Bank says growth has slowed, but GDP is still up by 2.7% this year. Westpac is forecasting positive (though low) levels of growth for 2023.

Nonetheless, CommBank’s latest Household Spending Index fell in February, indicating weaker consumer sentiment.

“We are seeing the growing impact of higher interest rates, with consumers taking stock and prioritising what they are spending their money on,” says CommBank senior economist Belinda Allen.

The upshot is that we may avoid a recession, but with Australians watching every dollar, it pays to create an action plan for your business in case the economy falters. Here are five ideas for getting started.

Audit key costs

When business expenses rise, the obvious counterpunch is to pass the extra costs onto consumers. But it can be a short-term fix that risks losing loyal customers.