IT IS A FORTUITOUS coincidence that the NITI Aayog has just released its approach paper on a âVision for Viksit Bharat@2047â, the year marking the 100th anniversary of Indiaâs independence. In exploring what Indiaâs international role and status would be in that year, one may note certain key assumptions and projections contained in the paper.
The âVisionâ sets the goal of our national endeavours at becoming a developed nation, for which âwe need to strive to be a $30 trillion economy by 2047 with a per capita income of $18,000 ( â¹15 lakh) per annum. The GDP would have to grow nine times from todayâs $3.36 trillion and the per capita income would need to rise eight times from todayâs $2,392 ( â¹2 lakh) per annum.â
The paper declares: âIn a Viksit Bharat, the economy will be a leading global economy, a driver of global economic growth, a magnet of global talent, trade and capital. Its cities and markets will be among the largest and top-most business and financial centres of the world.â Further, there will be âIndian-origin Global Business Champions in manufacturing, services, agriculture, R&D and innovation, technology and scale.â
These projections would make India the third largest economy in 2047 behind China and the US, but what would be the gap with these two powers? It is the relative equation which matters. The Indian economy may end up half as large as Chinaâs, and two-thirds of the US. Projected to grow faster than both China and the US, India would have shrunk the gap with both countries and this will bestow greater agency on it in the shaping and management of the international order by mid-century.
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