STATUS QUO STAYS

WHAT THE WAGNER IMBROGLIO MEANS FOR UKRAINE

- MRIDULA GHOSH

When a truthful person tells a lie, people take it for truth. But when Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of Russia’s Wagner Group—a disinformation ace and liar who was indicted for his internet troll farm’s role in the 2016 US elections—says the truth about the wrongness of the war from the Ukrainian soil and after that crusades with his men towards Moscow for “justice”, it shocked everybody—but not the Ukrainians.

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, things were not going as planned. Everybody had predicted that Ukraine would fall in a matter of days. That did not happen. Though Russia could occupy more than 25 per cent of Ukraine, it had to retreat from Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson, thanks to the spirited fightback by the Ukrainian armed forces. Analysts say there were drawbacks in planning, and the intel collected by Russians from their Ukrainian support bases was misleading. Borrowed from the post-World War II era, the ideas of denazification and demilitarisation were not understood. The number of forces deployed in the ‘special military operation’was not significant enough to hold and manage the territories. Above all, the Ukrainian people stood against occupation. Ukraine started lobbying with the west for arms and other support, and the narrative quickly changed into Russia vs west, where Ukraine was a mere proxy. This impression that Russia is fighting alone against the big alliance that is backing Ukraine also helped widen public support in Russia.