A 'trishul' for decarbonisation

India must focus on power, industry and agriculture to achieve its 2070 target; but all three sectors are politically inconvenient to tackle

Even as the latest edition of the United Nations Climate Change Conference draws to a close in Egypt, India's quest to decarbonise its economy rests on a "trishul" (trident) strategy power, industry and agriculture are the three prongs that together accounted for 80 per cent of the country's 3,274 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCo2e) in emissions in pre-pandemic 2019.

And India's progress towards net zero by 2070 will depend on how successful it is in facilitating an orderly transition to a clean economy by addressing these key areas, said management consultant McKinsey in its latest report.

Cleaning up the country's air does not come cheap. India needs investments of $7-12 trillion until 2050 to decarbonise its economy, around 6 per cent of GDP through this period, in an accelerated transition, according to McKinsey estimates.

Arthur D Little and Teri experts anticipate expenditure of $300400 billion to meet 2030's renewable targets.

Though one can argue with the numbers, the need for clean energy is indisputable. Though India's emissions currently stand at a mere 1.8 MtCo2e per capita (versus the US at 14.7 and China at 7.6), it is still the world's third-largest emitter at 2.9 GTCO2e or gigatonnes CO2 equivalent (4.9 per cent of global emissions), said McKinsey, in its latest report on "Decarbonizing India".

India will likely be a $22-trillion economy in real 2010 dollar terms, about seven times its current GDP, by 2070, according to EIU estimates, while greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may increase to 11.8 GtCO2e, four-fold extant levels, at current reduction rates.