Coal, The Dirtiest Fossil Fuel, Prepares For A Long Goodbye

Thanks to a combination of China's energy insecurity, rising Indian demand, fallout of the war in Ukraine, and faltering international programmes to wean developing economies off fossil fuels, coal is proving remarkably resilient

More than two years after climate negotiators first attempted to consign coal to history, the dirtiest fossil fuel is having a moment.

plus rising Thanks to a combination of China's energy insecurity - pushing Beijing back to trusted power sources Indian demand, the continued fallout of the war in Ukraine and faltering international programmes to wean developing economies off fossil fuels, coal is proving remarkably resilient. Output hit a record last year, and producers are preparing for a future where they will be required for decades yet to balance renewable energy.

Even prices are holding up. While thermal coal is trading at just a fraction of the lofty levels reached in 2022, after Russia's invasion of its neighbor, prices are still well above historic norms. Benchmark Newcastle coal futures are changing hands just under $130 a tonne, roughly a quarter of the peak but higher than any level between 2011 and 2020.

Much of this second wind is down to Asia. In 2000, the International Energy Agency estimated advanced economies accounted for almost half of coal consumption. By 2026, China and India alone will make up more than 70 per cent. Those two heavyweights and Indonesia started operating new coal power plants amounting to 59 gigawatts last year, and either launched or revived proposals for another 131 gigawatts - about 93 per cent of the world's total, according to Global Energy Monitor.