Manufacturing may drag Q2 GDP growth to six-qtr low

High-frequency indicators also reflect sluggish growth in the quarter

- ASIT RANJAN MISHRA

High-frequency indicators suggest that India's economic growth is likely to hit a six-quarter low in the September quarter (Q2) of 2024-25 (FY25), with moderation especially in the manufacturing sector.

During the June quarter of FY25, the economy grew 6.7 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has pared down its forecast to 6.8 per cent in its October bulletin, from 7 per cent projected by Governor Shaktikanta Das during the October monetary policy briefing.

The Central Statistical Office will release the GDP data on November 29.

In Q2, the index of industrial production (IIP), which includes manufacturing, electricity, and mining, slowed to grow by 2.6 per cent, down from 5.45 per cent growth in Q1. Among other high-frequency indicators, growth in steel and cement consumption, bank credit, domestic passenger vehicle (PV) sales, and two-wheeler sales also eased in Q2 compared to Q1.