Politics, exit polls, market and retail investors

Are retail investors reading the market better than institutional investors? Are they getting smarter?

- TAMAL BANDYOPADHYAY

On June 6, two days after the Lok Sabha election results were declared. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi alleged that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah were "directly involved" in what he described as the biggest "stock market scam", and demanded a Joint Parliamentary Committee probe. Senior Bharatiya Janata Party leader (BJP) Piyush Goyal lost no time in refuting Gandhi's charges. Meanwhile, the stock market rose for three successive days till Friday, June 7, to wipe out the losses of June 4.

Let's not get into the allegations and counter-allegations. Instead, let's look at what happened in the market in the past few months and certain side shows since the Election Commission announced the dates on March 16, Saturday, for a sevenphase poll between April 19 and June 1.

The first trading session of the market after this announcement was on March 18. That day, Nifty 50, which represents the weighted average of 50 of the largest listed Indian companies, closed at 22,055-almost unchanged from its level on March 15. Thereafter, the market yo-yoed as the polls progressed.

Aren't ups and downs an integral part of the stock market? Of course, they are. And all the market moves were interspersed with comments from high-profile ministers.

And what exactly did they say? The Indian stock market will be a "solid bull market" after the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are declared on June 4 as a "good result" is coming for the BJP, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in an interview with CNN-News18 on May 30.

Before that, on May 21, in an interview with The Economic Times, Modi said, "I can say with confidence that on June 4, as the BJP hits record numbers, the stock market will also hit new record highs."