Will Trump get his wish for a weaker dollar?

If former US President Donald Trump returns to the White House in 2025 and most betting markets still have the odds at 60 per cent or better will he achieve the weak dollar that both he and his running mate, Senator J D Vance, so desperately want? Their view, of course, is that something must be done to restore America's manufacturing sector to its former glory, and they believe that the best way to achieve this goal is by imposing high tariffs and devaluing the greenback.

- KENNETH ROGOFF

Mr Vance, in his journey from Never Trumper to Forever Trumper, has repeatedly argued that today's strong dollar undermines the competitiveness of American labour. This argument is catnip for the press, as it sounds more like sports talk than boring economics, and the commentariat's response has largely focused on just how little sway the US president has over global exchange-rate markets. To be sure, there is a long history of presidents and Treasury secretaries trying, and failing, to talk the dollar up or down. Moreover, many have predicted that the spectre of Trumpian tax cuts and tariffs would, in fact, push up interest rates and strengthen the dollar.